bulldog10 wrote:
Of course I should start with anyone who claims to understand airline pricing is deluded.
Hee Hee. I definitely agree with that to a large extent. I flew an entire career with the airlines and I still don't understand everything about ticket prices. We had an entire department of whiz K*ds and a row of computers at the headquarters that set ticket prices. But there is one thing that the ticket price will always reflect:
What the market will bear. If the ticket prices out of TPA are indeed $800 this year, then I can promise you one thing for 99% certain: the tickets were selling way too good at $400, or whatever last year's price was.
Some other stuff I picked up along the way:
Those $400 tickets are still there, the airline just isn't selling them. They've shelved the "T" booking codes (or whatever that airline's letter is) because, once again, they were selling too many of them too soon. But the airline could release those codes (commonly called "buckets") at any time.
Every year or so, some dumbass on MSNBC or wherever will use historical data to "prove" that tickets are the cheapest at 30 or 40 days out. As soon as that information is made public, the airlines change their pricing schemes to potentially dupe the people who believe that past data indicates future performance. On the other hand, if tickets are underselling, the airline will make sure that at least a few low fares are out at that time so they can catch all of those people who are looking and keep the myth going.
I did hear from an old buddy who's still flying that some airlines are trying to move business to LIR over SJO and are playing hardball with SJO fares to improve their LIR traffic. They want to maintain those LIR routes, and they like LIR because it's much more accessible than SJO (fewer delays and cancellations).
Usually, those super-low prices (fare codes, buckets) come out because one airline starts it. A fare war ensues, and eventually even United is offering $99 one-way. Airlines take this personally when it happens at one of their hubs or focus cities.
bulldog10 is right: unless you work for the airlines in the ticket pricing department, or you're an experienced travel agent, ticket consolidator, etc. you don't understand airline ticket pricing. You can understand it if you put hundreds of hours into it, but keep this in mind: there is a method to ticket pricing; the airlines have teams of people and banks of computers that do this every day, all day; trying to outsmart the airlines on ticket prices is like trying to beat Kasparov at chess. When I was flying I would just ask someone in the sales or marketing department to please let me know when the ticket price was good (no, we don't always fly for free).