The Basics of NFL Wagering

The most basic and common NFL bet that people make on NFL games is a side bet, which is a type of a wager that is called a straight bet (or a straight play).  In addition to side bets (also known as pointspread bets), other types of straight bets include game total bets and moneyline bets.  But since I never release game total bets any more and virtually never release moneyline plays, I will focus on side/pointspread bets in this article. 

Sportsbooks set pointspreads on every NFL game by having one team favored by a certain number of points over another team.  An exception to this would be when neither team is favored in a particular game, in which case you just have to pick which team is going to win the game straight up.  Such games are referred to as Pick ´Em games, and are relatively rare in both the NFL and college football games.

Contrary to popular belief, the primary purpose of sportsbooks setting pointspreads on games is not to serve as predictions in regards to the outcomes of all of the games (i.e. what the expected median point differential is in all of the games).  But rather the primary purpose is to get a roughly equal amount of action from bettors on all of the games. 

So for example, if the Chicago Bears are favored by 8.5 points over the Detroit LIons, sportsbooks are not necessarily indicating that they believe that there is a 50% chance that the Bears will win the game by nine points or more and a 50% chance that the Bears will win the game by eights points or less, tie, or lose the game straight up.  But rather in setting the pointspread at Chicago Bears -8.5 in such a game, the bookmakers are doing so with the intent of attracting an approximate equal number of bets on both sides in this game between the Bears and the Lions.  This is because doing so effectively guarantees that the bookmakers will generate a profit on the game. 

Truth be told, there is not an equal amount of action on both sides in the majority of NFL games, but sportsbooks try to come as close as possible. But the fact that the pointspreads that are set on particular games is determined more by public perception than it is by the true relative value of the two teams is precisely why it is possible to profit in the long run by wagering on NFL games. 

In fact, when you´re betting on NFL games and other sporting events, you are really competing against your bookmaker´s other customers to a greater extent than you are competing against the bookmakers themselves.  Since you´re competing against the public and not really the house, it is indeed possible to win in the long run wagering on NFL games.

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